Cordoba 1–2 Granada CF: Result & Stats

Cordoba

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Granada CF

Andrés Martín 3'

Fede Vico 29'

Miguel Loureiro 25' (OG)

2/15/2019

Segunda División · Round 26Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cordoba54%

×Draw23%

Granada CF22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CordobaExpected goals in this matchGranada CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.06

Cordoba

1.79

Granada CF

1.06

Cordoba creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.96

creates per match

0.83

1.30

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Cordoba

1.96

Granada CF

0.83

allows per match

Cordoba

1.30

Granada CF

1.62

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cordoba-0.63scores less

Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Granada CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw

78%

Cordoba or Granada CF

77%

Draw or Granada CF

46%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+

30%

Granada CF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals

83%

Cordoba 2+ goals

53%

Cordoba 3+ goals

26%

Granada CF 1+ goals

65%

Granada CF 2+ goals

29%

Granada CF 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)

71%

Granada CF (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 6 matches

Granada CF away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.96 + Granada CF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.79

Granada CF attack 0.83 + Cordoba defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cordoba scores more

54%

level

23%

Granada CF scores more

22%

Cordoba at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Álvaro Vadillo

Granada CF · M

8.0

Match Events

3'

Andrés Martín

21'

Rodri

25'

Miguel LoureiroOwn goal

29'

Fede Vico↳ Álvaro Vadillo

52'

N. Manzambi← José Carrillo

53'

Neftali Manzambi

63'

Yann Bodiger

64'

I. Touré← Álvaro Aguado

66'

Jaime Romero← Andrés Martín

66'

R. Azeez← Dani Ojeda

70'

Alejandro Pozo← Fede Vico

72'

Víctor Díaz

86'

Antonio Puertas← Álvaro Vadillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CordobaGranada

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots12

6Corners3

17Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots12

2On Target3

6Off Target6

2Blocked3

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

412Total Passes346

321Accurate Passes244

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides5

Segunda División: Cordoba 1–2 Granada CF

Granada CF beat Cordoba 2-1 in Segunda División on February 15, 2019.

Goals: Andrés Martín (3'), Miguel Loureiro (25' o.g.), Fede Vico (29').

Cordoba controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Cordoba.

Cordoba vs Granada CF — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Cordoba 1–2 Granada CF