Granada CF 1–0 Cordoba: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cordoba

Siren Diao 90+1'

10/13/2024

Segunda División · Round 9Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Granada CF55%

×Draw25%

Cordoba20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchCordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.90

Granada CF

1.65

Cordoba

0.90

Granada CF creates 83% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 74 away

1.56

creates per match

1.04

0.76

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Granada CF

1.56

Cordoba

1.04

allows per match

Granada CF

0.76

Cordoba

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

80%

Granada CF or Cordoba

75%

Draw or Cordoba

45%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

30%

Cordoba wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

81%

Granada CF 2+ goals

49%

Granada CF 3+ goals

23%

Cordoba 1+ goals

59%

Cordoba 2+ goals

23%

Cordoba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

73%

Cordoba (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Cordoba defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cordoba attack 1.04 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Granada CF scores more

55%

level

25%

Cordoba scores more

20%

Granada CF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Carlos Marín

Cordoba · G

7.7

Match Events

36'

Isma Ruiz

39'

Théo Zidane

58'

Ander Yoldi← Cristian Carracedo

62'

Manu Trigueros← Sergio Ruiz

67'

N. Obolskiy← Antonio Casas

67'

Genaro Rodríguez← Álex Sala

71'

Pablo Sáenz← K. Jóźwiak

71'

Reinier← T. Corbeanu

81'

Siren Diao← S. Weissman

81'

Xavi Sintes← Isma Ruiz

81'

Kuki← Jacobo González

90'

Carlos Marín

90+1'

Siren Diao↳ Manu Trigueros

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaCordoba

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots6

5Corners4

12Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots6

5On Target2

9Off Target2

3Blocked2

10Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

476Total Passes276

392Accurate Passes193

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1