Granada CF 2–4 Almeria: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Almeria

P. Saenz 90'

P. Aleman 11'

M. de la Fuente 68'

S. Arribas 38' (pen), 18', 14'

4/26/2026

Segunda División · Round 37Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Granada CF46%

×Draw27%

Almeria27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.02

Granada CF

1.41

Almeria

1.02

Granada CF creates 38% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 133 away

1.56

creates per match

1.27

0.76

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Granada CF

1.56

Almeria

1.27

allows per match

Granada CF

0.76

Almeria

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

73%

Granada CF or Almeria

73%

Draw or Almeria

54%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

22%

Almeria wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

76%

Granada CF 2+ goals

41%

Granada CF 3+ goals

17%

Almeria 1+ goals

64%

Almeria 2+ goals

27%

Almeria 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

63%

Almeria (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.26 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Almeria attack 1.27 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Granada CF scores more

46%

level

27%

Almeria scores more

27%

Granada CF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. Arribas

Almeria · M

9.2

Match Events

11'

P. Aleman↳ S. Ruiz

14'

S. Arribas

18'

S. Arribas↳ A. Embarba

35'

Rodrigo ElyPenalty confirmed

37'

Sergio Ruiz Alonso

38'

S. ArribasPenalty

46'

P. Saenz← S. Ruiz

46'

I. Gonzalez← D. Hormigo

62'

Stefan Džodić

66'

A. Puigmal← Leo Baptistao

68'

M. de la Fuente↳ A. Munoz

69'

B. Diocou← G. Petit

69'

P. Casadesus← A. Lemos

73'

Chumi← M. Luna

80'

Thalys← M. de la Fuente

80'

A. Horta← D. Lopy

80'

J. Morcillo← A. Embarba

83'

S. Rodelas← B. Diallo

84'

Baba

90'

A. Astralaga← L. Zidane

90+1'

A. Centelles← A. Munoz

90'

P. Saenz↳ R. Alcaraz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaAlmeria

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots19

4Corners3

11Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots19

6On Target10

3Off Target4

1Blocked5

7Inside Box12

3Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

340Total Passes345

266Accurate Passes268

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1