Almeria vs Granada CF — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Almeria63%
Granada CF17%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Almeria creates 115% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over61
- Under39
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Almeria ↓
Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Almeria at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.18 · 5 matches
Granada CF away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Almeria attack 2.68 + Granada CF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.15
Granada CF attack 0.83 + Almeria defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 63%?"
Almeria at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 63% does not mean "Almeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Racing Santander
MalagaAlmeria
Deportivo La Coruna
Las Palmas
Castellón
Burgos
Eibar
Sporting Gijon
Cordoba
AD Ceuta FC
Albacete
FC AndorraGranada CF
Real Sociedad II
Leganes
Valladolid
Cadiz
Mirandes
Huesca
Cultural Leonesa
ZaragozaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Almeria host Granada CF on Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 15:15. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Almeria vs Granada CF
Almeria beat Granada CF 3-2 in Segunda División on January 3, 2026.
Goals: Gui Guedes (25'), P. Aleman (40'), Leo Baptistao (64'), S. Dzodic (74'), J. Pascual (90' pen).
Granada CF controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 12.
The match was played at UD Almeria Stadium in Almeria.