Almeria 2–1 Granada CF: Result & Stats

Almeria

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Granada CF

Gonzalo Melero 87'

L. Suárez 83'

M. Uzuni 45+1'

11/30/2024

Segunda División · Round 17UD Almería Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Almeria63%

×Draw20%

Granada CF17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmeriaExpected goals in this matchGranada CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.00

Almeria

2.15

Granada CF

1.00

Almeria creates 115% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.68

creates per match

0.83

1.18

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Almeria

2.68

Granada CF

0.83

allows per match

Almeria

1.18

Granada CF

1.62

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almeria+0.52scores more

Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeria ↓

Granada CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Almeria or draw

83%

Almeria or Granada CF

80%

Draw or Granada CF

37%

Winning margin

Almeria wins by 2+

40%

Granada CF wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Almeria 1+ goals

88%

Almeria 2+ goals

63%

Almeria 3+ goals

36%

Granada CF 1+ goals

63%

Granada CF 2+ goals

26%

Granada CF 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Almeria (draw refunded)

79%

Granada CF (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeria at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.18 · 5 matches

Granada CF away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeria attack 2.68 + Granada CF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.15

Granada CF attack 0.83 + Almeria defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Almeria scores more

63%

level

20%

Granada CF scores more

17%

Almeria at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Almeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Edgar González

Almeria · D

7.7

Match Events

8'

40'

45+1'

46'

62'

Álex Pozo← Bruno Langa

62'

Arnau Puigmal← Marc Pubill

67'

Sergio Ruiz← Reinier

68'

Pablo Sáenz← K. Jóźwiak

72'

Nico Melamed← Léo Baptistão

76'

Manu Trigueros← Gonzalo Villar

77'

Rubén Sánchez← G. Tsitaishvili

83'

L. Suárez↳ Gonzalo Melero

85'

Gonzalo Melero

87'

Gonzalo Melero

89'

S. Weissman← M. Hongla

90+3'

Ricard Sánchez

90+1'

M. Milovanović← L. Suárez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmeriaGranada

Overview

55%Possession45%

18Total Shots8

7Corners1

16Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots8

7On Target5

9Off Target3

2Blocked0

13Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

464Total Passes385

394Accurate Passes308

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3

Segunda División: Almeria 2–1 Granada CF

Almeria beat Granada CF 2-1 in Segunda División on November 30, 2024.

Goals: M. Uzuni (45+1'), L. Suárez (83'), Gonzalo Melero (87').

Almeria controlled possession (55%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at UD Almería Stadium in Almería.

Almeria vs Granada CF — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Almeria 2–1 Granada CF