Grafičar 2–0 Dinamo Vranje: Result & Stats

Grafičar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dinamo Vranje

L. Marjanović 22'

D. Pobulić 4'

8/15/2020

Prva Liga · Round 1Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Grafičar54%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Vranje21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrafičarExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vranje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.90

Grafičar

1.59

Dinamo Vranje

0.90

Grafičar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 32 away

1.75

creates per match

0.81

0.98

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Grafičar

1.75

Dinamo Vranje

0.81

allows per match

Grafičar

0.98

Dinamo Vranje

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

Dinamo Vranje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw

79%

Grafičar or Dinamo Vranje

75%

Draw or Dinamo Vranje

46%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+

28%

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals

80%

Grafičar 2+ goals

47%

Grafičar 3+ goals

21%

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

59%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

23%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)

72%

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.81 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Grafičar scores more

54%

level

25%

Dinamo Vranje scores more

21%

Grafičar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

D. Pobulić

22'

L. Marjanović

24'

V. Radočaj← D. Nedeljković

30'

M. Čubrilo← V. Spasić

30'

E. Dolovac← V. Ilić

55'

M. Keča← T. Goranović

55'

D. Baždarević← Ž. Dimitrov

71'

P. Piplića← D. Pobulić

73'

V. Jelic

88'

V. Panić← L. Marjanović

Grafičar

Dinamo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Marjanovi

Babić

Manager: M. Žižic

71'▲P. Piplića←▼D. Pobulić

88'▲V. Panić←▼L. Marjanović

Grafičar substitutes

PiplićaPanić

Manager: D. Antić

24'▲V. Radočaj←▼D. Nedeljković

30'▲M. Čubrilo←▼V. Spasić

30'▲E. Dolovac←▼V. Ilić

55'▲M. Keča←▼T. Goranović

55'▲D. Baždarević←▼Ž. Dimitrov

Dinamo Vranje substitutes

RadočajČubriloDolovacKečaBaždarević