Grafičar vs Dinamo Vranje — Prva Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Grafičar54%
Dinamo Vranje21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Grafičar creates 77% more chances
Season form · 126 home / 32 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Grafičar ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches
Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Grafičar attack 1.75 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59
Dinamo Vranje attack 0.81 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Grafičar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Grafičar substitutes
Dinamo Vranje substitutes
Head to Head
TSC Backa Topola
Javor
Indjija
FK Zlatibor
Radnicki 1923
Metalac GM
Bezanija
Sindjelic Beograd
FK Trayal
Zarkovo
FK Becej
Buducnost Dobanovci
Teleoptik
Borac Cacak
Sloboda Uzice
Novi PazarIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Grafičar host Dinamo Vranje on Sunday, 29 September 2019 at 14:00. The match is part of the Prva Liga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Grafičar vs Dinamo Vranje
Grafičar beat Dinamo Vranje 4-2 in Prva Liga on September 29, 2019.
Goals: M. Stevanović (27' pen, 70' pen), Ž. Gavrić (33', 35', 73'), J. Stanojev (65').
The match was played at Stadion Grafičara in Beograd.