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Dinamo Vranje vs Grafičar — Prva Liga 2018

Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Grafičar
Grafičar
3/15/2020Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 26Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Vranje42%
×Draw26%
Grafičar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vranje
1.44
Grafičar
1.24

Dinamo Vranje creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 125 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.50
Grafičar
1.14

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.34
Grafičar
1.38

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par
Grafičar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Grafičar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw
68%
Dinamo Vranje or Grafičar
74%
Draw or Grafičar
58%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
20%
Grafičar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
18%
Grafičar 1+ goals
71%
Grafičar 2+ goals
35%
Grafičar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
56%
Grafičar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Grafičar away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 1.50 + Grafičar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Grafičar attack 1.14 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more
42%
level
26%
Grafičar scores more
32%

Dinamo Vranje at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vranje vs Grafičar

Grafičar beat Dinamo Vranje 4-1 in Prva Liga on March 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion YUMCO in Vranje.