Göztepe 1–1 Sakaryaspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Göztepe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sakaryaspor

T. Demirhan 89'

İ. Demir 53'

11/13/2011

1. Lig · Round 10İzmir Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Göztepe56%

×Draw24%

Sakaryaspor20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GöztepeExpected goals in this matchSakaryaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.92

Göztepe

1.71

Sakaryaspor

0.92

Göztepe creates 86% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 72 away

1.65

creates per match

1.15

0.70

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Göztepe

1.65

Sakaryaspor

1.15

allows per match

Göztepe

0.70

Sakaryaspor

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Sakaryaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw

80%

Göztepe or Sakaryaspor

76%

Draw or Sakaryaspor

44%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+

31%

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

82%

Göztepe 2+ goals

51%

Göztepe 3+ goals

24%

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals

60%

Sakaryaspor 2+ goals

23%

Sakaryaspor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)

73%

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

Sakaryaspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.78 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.65 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sakaryaspor attack 1.15 + Göztepe defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Göztepe scores more

56%

level

24%

Sakaryaspor scores more

20%

Göztepe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Berge← U. Uğur

53'

İ. Demir

58'

H. Hacıbektaşoğlu← K. Ozturk

70'

C. Çelik← H. Avgin

78'

K. Eryılmaz← L. Demiray

81'

G. Gürsoy← Ş. Ünal

89'

T. Demirhan

90'

S. Köytepe← G. Aydın

Göztepe

Sakaryaspor

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Ö. Kızıltan

46'▲M. Berge←▼U. Uğur

58'▲H. Hacıbektaşoğlu←▼K. Ozturk

81'▲G. Gürsoy←▼Ş. Ünal

Göztepe substitutes

BergeHacıbektaşoğluGürsoyKapurtuAteşOnurAlbayrak

Manager: Ş. Yıldırım

70'▲C. Çelik←▼H. Avgin

78'▲K. Eryılmaz←▼L. Demiray

90'▲S. Köytepe←▼G. Aydın

Sakaryaspor substitutes

ÇelikEryılmazKöytepeDemirDemirEfeÇatalbas