Göztepe 0–1 Alanyaspor: Result & Stats

Göztepe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Alanyaspor

Nuno Lima 45+1'

2/2/2025

League #203 · Round 22Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Göztepe61%

×Draw22%

Alanyaspor16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GöztepeExpected goals in this matchAlanyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.83

Göztepe

1.85

Alanyaspor

0.83

Göztepe creates 123% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

2.14

creates per match

0.89

0.78

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Göztepe

2.14

Alanyaspor

0.89

allows per match

Göztepe

0.78

Alanyaspor

1.55

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Göztepe-0.47scores less

Alanyaspor+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Alanyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw

84%

Göztepe or Alanyaspor

78%

Draw or Alanyaspor

39%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+

36%

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

84%

Göztepe 2+ goals

55%

Göztepe 3+ goals

28%

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

56%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

20%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)

79%

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 2.14 + Alanyaspor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.85

Alanyaspor attack 0.89 + Göztepe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Göztepe scores more

61%

level

22%

Alanyaspor scores more

16%

Göztepe at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Taşkıran

Alanyaspor · G

8.9

Match Events

24'

O. Bayrak← K. Günter

28'

Enes Keskin

43'

HélitonPenalty cancelled

45+1'

Nuno Lima↳ J. Balkovec

46'

Emersonn← Rômulo

52'

Novatus Miroshi

60'

EmersonnPenalty cancelled

67'

HélitonGoal cancelled

71'

A. Ildız← Victor Hugo

71'

K. Matsuki← D. Tijanič

73'

Juan Christian← E. Keskin

75'

Ahmed Ildız

79'

Ertuğrul Taşkıran

81'

JuanMissed penalty

86'

Djalma

87'

İ. Köybaşı← Djalma Silva

90+7'

A. Usluoğlu← Hwang Ui-Jo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GöztepeAlanyaspor

Overview

57%Possession43%

25Total Shots8

2.87Expected Goals (xG)0.48

7Corners3

15Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots8

9On Target3

12Off Target5

4Blocked0

18Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

357Total Passes271

249Accurate Passes168

70%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

2.08Goals Prevented2.08

Discipline

15Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2