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Göztepe vs Alanyaspor — League #203 2026

Göztepe
Göztepe
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor
T. Bingöl 90+7'
F. Diédhiou 71'
3/19/2022League #203League #203 · Round 30Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Göztepe61%
×Draw22%
Alanyaspor16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
1.85
Alanyaspor
0.83

Göztepe creates 123% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Göztepe
2.14
Alanyaspor
0.89

allows per match

Göztepe
0.78
Alanyaspor
1.55

finishing

Göztepe-0.47scores less
Alanyaspor+0.11scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Alanyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
84%
Göztepe or Alanyaspor
78%
Draw or Alanyaspor
39%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
36%
Alanyaspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
84%
Göztepe 2+ goals
55%
Göztepe 3+ goals
28%
Alanyaspor 1+ goals
56%
Alanyaspor 2+ goals
20%
Alanyaspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
79%
Alanyaspor (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 2.14 + Alanyaspor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.85

Alanyaspor attack 0.89 + Göztepe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Göztepe scores more
61%
level
22%
Alanyaspor scores more
16%

Göztepe at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
N. MilunovićAlanyasporAlanyaspor · D
7.9

Match Events

36'
Oğuz Aydın
40'
Oussama TannaneGoal cancelled
46'
T. Bingöl← O. Aydın
52'
Obinna Nwobodo
67'
Lourency← O. Tannane
67'
D. Tijanič← C. Ndiaye
67'
A. Jahović← K. Alıcı
68'
F. Diédhiou← Candeias
68'
U. Güneş← E. Akbaba
71'
F. Diédhiou↳ E. Karaca
81'
F. Bayır← E. Karaca
84'
Y. Kayan← O. Nwobodo
89'
E. Özkayımoğlu← F. Di Santo
90+6'
Kahraman Demirtaş
90+4'
L. Fer← E. Bekiroglu
90+7'
T. Bingöl

Possession

44%Göztepe

Shots

7Göztepe

Pass accuracy

49%Göztepe

Statistics

GöztepeAlanyaspor
Overview
44%Possession56%
7Total Shots12
2Corners4
15Fouls10
Shots
7Total Shots12
0On Target4
6Off Target6
1Blocked2
4Inside Box6
3Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
419Total Passes550
341Accurate Passes475
81%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Alanyaspor

Alanyaspor beat Göztepe 2-0 in League #203 on March 19, 2022.

Goals: F. Diédhiou (71'), T. Bingöl (90+7').

Alanyaspor controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in İzmir.