Alanyaspor 1–1 Göztepe: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Göztepe

Y. Özdemir 48'

Héliton 45'

8/23/2024

League #203 · Round 3GAIN Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Alanyaspor37%

×Draw26%

Göztepe37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.31

Alanyaspor

1.32

Göztepe

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.14

creates per match

1.41

1.22

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Alanyaspor

1.14

Göztepe

1.41

allows per match

Alanyaspor

1.22

Göztepe

1.50

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.51scores less than expected

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.03on par

Göztepe-0.51scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

63%

Alanyaspor or Göztepe

74%

Draw or Göztepe

63%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

17%

Göztepe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

73%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

38%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

15%

Göztepe 1+ goals

73%

Göztepe 2+ goals

38%

Göztepe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

50%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 12 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.14 + Göztepe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Göztepe attack 1.41 + Alanyaspor defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

37%

level

26%

Göztepe scores more

37%

Alanyaspor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Balkovec

Alanyaspor · D

7.9

Match Events

11'

David Tijanič

17'

Isaac Solet

20'

D. Erdoğan← D. Tijanič

24'

Koray Günter

38'

Efecan Karaca

45'

Héliton

48'

Y. Özdemir↳ G. Makouta

57'

S. Dursun← Rony Lopes

59'

M. Bokélé← N. Miroshi

59'

Juan← K. Kanatsızkuş

62'

Malcom Bokele

79'

T. Altıkardeş← K. Günter

79'

K. Matsuki← I. Solet

81'

Nuno Lima← F. Bayır

87'

N. Janvier← E. Karaca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlanyasporGöztepe

Overview

68%Possession32%

11Total Shots10

1.37Expected Goals (xG)1.47

8Corners2

6Fouls23

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target3

4Off Target3

4Blocked4

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

508Total Passes236

432Accurate Passes163

85%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.17Goals Prevented0.17

Discipline

6Fouls23

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides3