Górnik Polkowice 1–1 GKS Katowice: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

GKS Katowice

M. Piątkowski 58' (pen)

M. Kołodziejski 55'

9/20/2021

I Liga · Round 9Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice33%

×Draw29%

GKS Katowice39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchGKS Katowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.19

Górnik Polkowice

1.07

GKS Katowice

1.19

GKS Katowice creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 65 away

0.88

creates per match

1.25

1.12

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

0.88

GKS Katowice

1.25

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.12

GKS Katowice

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

GKS Katowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

61%

Górnik Polkowice or GKS Katowice

71%

Draw or GKS Katowice

67%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

13%

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

66%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

29%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

9%

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

70%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

33%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

46%

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.26 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 0.88 + GKS Katowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

GKS Katowice attack 1.25 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

33%

level

29%

GKS Katowice scores more

39%

GKS Katowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

M. Kołodziejski

58'

M. PiątkowskiPenalty

60'

A. Purzycki

61'

E. Sobków← M. Bancewicz

61'

K. Wacławczyk← A. Purzycki

63'

F. Szymczak← P. Szwedzik

78'

J. Sypek← K. Szmyt

78'

F. Kozłowski← S. Kiebzak

81'

M. Pałaszewski← M. Szuszkiewicz

90'

M. Urynowicz← A. Błąd

90'

K. Sanocki← Z. Wojciechowski

Górnik

GKS

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: P. Barylski

61'▲E. Sobków←▼M. Bancewicz

61'▲K. Wacławczyk←▼A. Purzycki

78'▲J. Sypek←▼K. Szmyt

81'▲M. Pałaszewski←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

SobkówWacławczykSypekPałaszewski

Manager: R. Górak

63'▲F. Szymczak←▼P. Szwedzik

78'▲F. Kozłowski←▼S. Kiebzak

90'▲M. Urynowicz←▼A. Błąd

90'▲K. Sanocki←▼Z. Wojciechowski

GKS Katowice substitutes

SzymczakKozłowskiUrynowiczSanocki