GKS Katowice 2–1 Górnik Polkowice: Result & Stats

GKS Katowice

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Górnik Polkowice

F. Kozłowski 30'

M. Urynowicz 28' (pen)

M. Piątkowski 49'

3/21/2021

II Liga - East · Round 23Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

GKS Katowice46%

×Draw24%

Górnik Polkowice30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GKS KatowiceExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.27

GKS Katowice

1.64

Górnik Polkowice

1.27

GKS Katowice creates 29% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 53 away

1.97

creates per match

1.40

1.14

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

GKS Katowice

1.97

Górnik Polkowice

1.40

allows per match

GKS Katowice

1.14

Górnik Polkowice

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw

70%

GKS Katowice or Górnik Polkowice

76%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

54%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

24%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

81%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

49%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

23%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

72%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

36%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

61%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.97 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.64

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + GKS Katowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

GKS Katowice scores more

46%

level

24%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

30%

GKS Katowice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. Blad

23'

J. Ratajczak

27'

M. Kowalski-Haberek

28'

M. UrynowiczPenalty

30'

F. Kozłowski

49'

M. Piątkowski

61'

F. Kozlowski

63'

R. Figiel← M. Urynowicz

63'

D. Kościelniak← A. Błąd

67'

P. Kucharczyk← M. Opałacz

67'

A. Borkowski← F. Baranowski

67'

E. Sobków← K. Wacławczyk

78'

K. Sanocki← A. Woźniak

78'

K. Fryzowicz← D. Radziemski

80'

M. Danilczyk

85'

P. Kurbiel← F. Kozłowski

87'

R. Karmelita← M. Danilczyk

GKS

Górnik

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Urynowicz

Kiebzak

⚽

▼

Kozłowski

Manager: R. Górak

63'▲R. Figiel←▼M. Urynowicz

63'▲D. Kościelniak←▼A. Błąd

78'▲K. Sanocki←▼A. Woźniak

85'▲P. Kurbiel←▼F. Kozłowski

GKS Katowice substitutes

FigielKościelniakSanockiKurbiel

Manager: J. Niedźwiedź

67'▲P. Kucharczyk←▼M. Opałacz

67'▲A. Borkowski←▼F. Baranowski

67'▲E. Sobków←▼K. Wacławczyk

78'▲K. Fryzowicz←▼D. Radziemski

87'▲R. Karmelita←▼M. Danilczyk

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

KucharczykBorkowskiSobkówFryzowiczKarmelita

II Liga - East: GKS Katowice 2–1 Górnik Polkowice

GKS Katowice beat Górnik Polkowice 2-1 in II Liga - East on March 21, 2021.

Goals: M. Urynowicz (28' pen), F. Kozłowski (30'), M. Piątkowski (49').

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.

GKS Katowice vs Górnik Polkowice — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: GKS Katowice 2–1 Górnik Polkowice