GKS Katowice 1–2 Górnik Polkowice: Result & Stats

GKS Katowice

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Górnik Polkowice

A. Woźniak 83'

M. Szuszkiewicz 90'

A. Purzycki 21'

4/2/2022

I Liga · Round 26Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

GKS Katowice53%

×Draw23%

Górnik Polkowice24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GKS KatowiceExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.11

GKS Katowice

1.79

Górnik Polkowice

1.11

GKS Katowice creates 61% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

1.52

creates per match

1.00

1.23

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

GKS Katowice

1.52

Górnik Polkowice

1.00

allows per match

GKS Katowice

1.23

Górnik Polkowice

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw

76%

GKS Katowice or Górnik Polkowice

77%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

47%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

30%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

83%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

53%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

26%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

67%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

30%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

69%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.23 · 66 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.52 + Górnik Polkowice defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.00 + GKS Katowice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

GKS Katowice scores more

53%

level

23%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

24%

GKS Katowice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

A. Purzycki

29'

G. Janiszewski

46'

Z. Wojciechowski← G. Rogala

59'

F. Kozłowski← M. Roginić

59'

P. Szwedzik← F. Szymczak

60'

M. Szuszkiewicz← E. Sobków

70'

F. Kozlowski

71'

M. Stromecki← O. Repka

77'

F. Baranowski← A. Hafez

80'

K. Sanocki← A. Błąd

83'

A. Woźniak

87'

M. Opałacz← D. Radziemski

89'

M. Piatkowski

90+6'

J. Szymanski

90'

M. Szuszkiewicz

GKS

Górnik

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Górak

46'▲Z. Wojciechowski←▼G. Rogala

59'▲F. Kozłowski←▼M. Roginić

59'▲P. Szwedzik←▼F. Szymczak

71'▲M. Stromecki←▼O. Repka

80'▲K. Sanocki←▼A. Błąd

GKS Katowice substitutes

WojciechowskiKozłowskiSzwedzikStromeckiSanockiJaroszekKarbownikUrynowiczKrólczyk

Manager: S. Szydelko

60'▲M. Szuszkiewicz←▼E. Sobków

77'▲F. Baranowski←▼A. Hafez

87'▲M. Opałacz←▼D. Radziemski

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

SzuszkiewiczBaranowskiOpałaczŻołądźKrakowskiWacławczykBancewiczFurtakKucharczyk