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Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
1/30/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Górnik Polkowice52%
×Draw20%
Carina Gubin28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
2.26
Carina Gubin
1.61

Górnik Polkowice creates 40% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.92
Carina Gubin
1.40

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.83
Carina Gubin
2.60

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Carina Gubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
72%
Górnik Polkowice or Carina Gubin
80%
Draw or Carina Gubin
48%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
32%
Carina Gubin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
89%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
66%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
39%
Carina Gubin 1+ goals
80%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
48%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
65%
Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Carina Gubin away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.92 + Carina Gubin defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.26

Carina Gubin attack 1.40 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
52%
level
20%
Carina Gubin scores more
28%

Górnik Polkowice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin

Górnik Polkowice beat Carina Gubin 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 30, 2026.