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Carina Gubin vs Górnik Polkowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
P. Bednarczyk 74'
B. Rymaniak 83'
B. Zynek 33'
4/25/2026III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 28Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Carina Gubin36%
×Draw25%
Górnik Polkowice39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carina Gubin
1.35
Górnik Polkowice
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

creates per match

Carina Gubin
1.38
Górnik Polkowice
1.55

allows per match

Carina Gubin
1.29
Górnik Polkowice
1.33

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw
61%
Carina Gubin or Górnik Polkowice
75%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
64%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+
16%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals
74%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
39%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
15%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
76%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
41%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
48%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 84 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.38 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Carina Gubin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carina Gubin scores more
36%
level
25%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
39%

Górnik Polkowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
B. Zynek
74'
P. Bednarczyk
83'
B. Rymaniak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carina Gubin vs Górnik Polkowice

Górnik Polkowice beat Carina Gubin 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 25, 2026.

Goals: B. Zynek (33'), P. Bednarczyk (74'), B. Rymaniak (83').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Gubin in Gubin.