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Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
4/18/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Górnik Polkowice43%
×Draw24%
Carina Gubin33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.61
Carina Gubin
1.39

Górnik Polkowice creates 16% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 85 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.72
Carina Gubin
1.51

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.26
Carina Gubin
1.51

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Carina Gubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
67%
Górnik Polkowice or Carina Gubin
76%
Draw or Carina Gubin
57%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
22%
Carina Gubin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
80%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
48%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
22%
Carina Gubin 1+ goals
75%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
40%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
56%
Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Carina Gubin away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Carina Gubin defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

Carina Gubin attack 1.51 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
43%
level
24%
Carina Gubin scores more
33%

Górnik Polkowice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Górnik Polkowice 2–1 Carina Gubin

Górnik Polkowice beat Carina Gubin 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.