Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

GOR Mahia vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2025

GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
N. Ochieng 88'
9/21/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 1Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

GOR Mahia47%
×Draw30%
Bidco United24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOR Mahia
1.23
Bidco United
0.78

GOR Mahia creates 58% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 30 away

creates per match

GOR Mahia
1.33
Bidco United
0.77

allows per match

GOR Mahia
0.78
Bidco United
1.13

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw
76%
GOR Mahia or Bidco United
70%
Draw or Bidco United
53%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+
21%
Bidco United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals
71%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
35%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
13%
Bidco United 1+ goals
54%
Bidco United 2+ goals
18%
Bidco United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
67%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.33 + Bidco United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bidco United attack 0.77 + GOR Mahia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

GOR Mahia scores more
47%
level
30%
Bidco United scores more
24%

GOR Mahia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'
N. Ochieng

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOR Mahia vs Bidco United

Bidco United beat GOR Mahia 1-0 in FKF Premier League on September 21, 2025.

Goals: N. Ochieng (88').

The match was played at Moi International Sports Centre in Nairobi.