GOR Mahia 0–1 Bidco United: Result & Stats

GOR Mahia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bidco United

E. Michubu 6' (pen)

12/8/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 12Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

GOR Mahia47%

×Draw30%

Bidco United23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOR MahiaExpected goals in this matchBidco United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.73

GOR Mahia

1.20

Bidco United

0.73

GOR Mahia creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 36 away

1.33

creates per match

0.69

0.78

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

GOR Mahia

1.33

Bidco United

0.69

allows per match

GOR Mahia

0.78

Bidco United

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Bidco United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw

77%

GOR Mahia or Bidco United

70%

Draw or Bidco United

53%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

21%

Bidco United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

70%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

34%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

12%

Bidco United 1+ goals

52%

Bidco United 2+ goals

17%

Bidco United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

68%

Bidco United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.33 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Bidco United attack 0.69 + GOR Mahia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

GOR Mahia scores more

47%

level

30%

Bidco United scores more

23%

GOR Mahia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

E. MichubuPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff