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Bidco United vs GOR Mahia — FKF Premier League 2025

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
B. Oddoh 26'
P. Ochuoga 90'
E. Assifuah 63'
1/24/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 18Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bidco United14%
×Draw29%
GOR Mahia57%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
0.49
GOR Mahia
1.29

GOR Mahia creates 163% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bidco United
0.46
GOR Mahia
1.53

allows per match

Bidco United
1.04
GOR Mahia
0.53

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

GOR Mahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–122%
0–214%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
43%
Bidco United or GOR Mahia
71%
Draw or GOR Mahia
86%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
3%
GOR Mahia wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
39%
Bidco United 2+ goals
9%
Bidco United 3+ goals
1%
GOR Mahia 1+ goals
72%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
37%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
20%
GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.46, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.46 + GOR Mahia defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.49

GOR Mahia attack 1.53 + Bidco United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bidco United scores more
14%
level
29%
GOR Mahia scores more
57%

GOR Mahia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
B. Oddoh
63'
E. Assifuah
90+10'
90'
P. Ochuoga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bidco United vs GOR Mahia

GOR Mahia beat Bidco United 2-1 in FKF Premier League on January 24, 2026.

Goals: B. Oddoh (26'), E. Assifuah (63'), P. Ochuoga (90').

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.