Sport Recife score first in only 26% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 74+ matches
Goias45%
Sport Recife26%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Goias creates 44% more chances
Season form · 85 home / 74 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Goias ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Goias at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.92 · 85 matches
Sport Recife away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.04 · 74 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Goias attack 1.46 + Sport Recife defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25
Sport Recife attack 0.82 + Goias defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.87
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Goias at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 65% of Goias’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
- Goias score first in 60% of matches
- 35% of Sport Recife’s goals come after the 75th minute
- Sport Recife fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.5 expected)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesHead-to-head
4 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Atletico Goianiense
Avai
BOA
Brasil DE Pelotas
CRB
CSA
Coritiba
Criciuma
Figueirense
Fortaleza ECGoias
Guarani Campinas
Juventude
Londrina
Oeste
Paysandu
Ponte Preta
Sampaio Correa
Sao Bento
Vila NovaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Goias host Sport Recife on Wednesday, 22 July 2026 at 23:30. The match is part of the Serie B 2026/2027 season.
Preview: Goias host Sport Recife
July 22, 2026: Goias take on Sport Recife in Serie B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.