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Goias vs CRB — Serie B 2025

Goias
Goias
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CRB
CRB
Juninho 1'
Dada Belmonte 62'
Mikael 28'
10/8/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 31Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Goias50%
×Draw26%
CRB24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goias
1.51
CRB
0.95

Goias creates 59% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 41 away

creates per match

Goias
1.31
CRB
0.93

allows per match

Goias
0.97
CRB
1.71

finishing

Goias+0.00on par
CRB+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

CRB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Goias or draw
76%
Goias or CRB
74%
Draw or CRB
50%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+
26%
CRB wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals
78%
Goias 2+ goals
44%
Goias 3+ goals
19%
CRB 1+ goals
61%
CRB 2+ goals
25%
CRB 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)
68%
CRB (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

CRB away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.71 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.31 + CRB defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.51

CRB attack 0.93 + Goias defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Goias scores more
50%
level
26%
CRB scores more
24%

Goias at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
Leo CamposCRBCRB · D
8.3

Match Events

1'
Juninho
28'
Welliton← Juninho
28'
Mikael↳ Leo Campos
37'
Danielzinho
50'
Diego Caito
59'
Wellington Rato← Rodrigo Andrade
59'
Gege← Danielzinho
59'
Willian Pottker← Thiaguinho
60'
Luquinhas← Diego Caito
62'
Dada Belmonte↳ Leo Campos
72'
Douglas Baggio← Dada Belmonte
75'
G. Freitas← Luiz Felipe
81'
Breno Herculano← Mikael
81'
Hayner← Leo Campos

Possession

46%Goias

Shots

11Goias

Pass accuracy

49%Goias

Statistics

GoiasCRB
Overview
46%Possession54%
11Total Shots16
0.46Expected Goals (xG)1.15
6Corners7
18Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots16
5On Target6
4Off Target5
2Blocked5
5Inside Box8
6Outside Box8
Passing
46%Possession54%
272Total Passes345
221Accurate Passes286
81%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Goias 1 – 2 CRB

CRB beat Goias 2-1 in Serie B on October 8, 2025.

Goals: Juninho (1'), Mikael (28'), Dada Belmonte (62').

CRB controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro in Goiania.