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CRB vs Goias — Serie B 2025

CRB
CRB
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Goias
Goias
Giovanni 76'
Thiaguinho 34'
6/14/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 12Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

CRB44%
×Draw25%
Goias32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CRB
1.56
Goias
1.29

CRB creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

CRB
1.57
Goias
1.27

allows per match

CRB
1.31
Goias
1.54

finishing

CRB+0.63scores more
Goias-0.27scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Goias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CRB or draw
68%
CRB or Goias
75%
Draw or Goias
56%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+
22%
Goias wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals
79%
CRB 2+ goals
46%
CRB 3+ goals
21%
Goias 1+ goals
72%
Goias 2+ goals
37%
Goias 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)
58%
Goias (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 5 matches

Goias away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.54 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.57 + Goias defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Goias attack 1.27 + CRB defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CRB scores more
44%
level
25%
Goias scores more
32%

CRB at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
Matheus AlbinoCRBCRB · G
8.7

Match Events

34'
Thiaguinho
36'
Danielzinho
46'
Martin Benitez← Rafael Gava
56'
Willian Pottker← Mikael
61'
E. Garcia← Welliton
61'
Arthur Caike← Pedrinho
68'
Giovanni← Danielzinho
68'
Fernando Henrique← Gege
70'
Matheus Albino
70'
Willean Lepo
76'
Giovanni↳ Willian Pottker
78'
Jaja← Anselmo Ramon
78'
Vitinho← Marcao Silva
82'
Hayner← Douglas Baggio
82'
Dada Belmonte← Thiaguinho
90+5'
Lucas Lovat

Possession

50%CRB

Shots

17CRB

Pass accuracy

50%CRB

Statistics

CRBGoias
Overview
50%Possession50%
17Total Shots18
1.40Expected Goals (xG)1.32
1Corners8
17Fouls7
Shots
17Total Shots18
4On Target6
7Off Target9
6Blocked3
9Inside Box10
8Outside Box8
Passing
50%Possession50%
434Total Passes420
350Accurate Passes344
81%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: CRB vs Goias

CRB beat Goias 2-0 in Serie B on June 14, 2025.

Goals: Thiaguinho (34'), Giovanni (76').

CRB controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.