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Goias vs CRB — Serie B 2025

Goias
Goias
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CRB
CRB
Paulo Baya 46'
Sander 54' (OG)
7/26/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 17Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Goias49%
×Draw26%
CRB24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goias
1.50
CRB
0.97

Goias creates 55% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 38 away

creates per match

Goias
1.31
CRB
0.97

allows per match

Goias
0.97
CRB
1.68

finishing

Goias+0.00on par
CRB+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

CRB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Goias or draw
76%
Goias or CRB
74%
Draw or CRB
51%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+
25%
CRB wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals
78%
Goias 2+ goals
44%
Goias 3+ goals
19%
CRB 1+ goals
62%
CRB 2+ goals
25%
CRB 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)
67%
CRB (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

CRB away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.31 + CRB defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

CRB attack 0.97 + Goias defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Goias scores more
49%
level
26%
CRB scores more
24%

Goias at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
João PedroCRBCRB · M
7.3

Match Events

46'
Paulo Baya↳ Régis
53'
Juninho
54'
SanderOwn goal
58'
Régis
61'
Rafael Gava← Nathan Melo
61'
Edu← Régis
65'
Mateus Gonçalves← Paulo Baya
65'
Luiz Henrique← Juninho
66'
Rômulo← Falcão
66'
Caio César← Kleiton
72'
Fábio Alemão
77'
João Neto← Anselmo Ramon
82'
Diego Caito← Dieguinho
83'
Thiago Galhardo
89'
Chay← Gegê
89'
Mike← Léo Pereira
90+5'
Thiago Galhardo
90+5'
Thiago Galhardo

Possession

50%Goias

Shots

10Goias

Pass accuracy

50%Goias

Statistics

GoiasCRB
Overview
50%Possession50%
10Total Shots11
0.84Expected Goals (xG)0.39
6Corners2
17Fouls19
Shots
10Total Shots11
3On Target1
4Off Target6
3Blocked4
5Inside Box5
5Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
433Total Passes437
363Accurate Passes361
84%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls19
4Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Goias 1 – 1 CRB

Goias and CRB drew 1-1 in Serie B on July 26, 2024.

Goals: Paulo Baya (46'), Sander (54' o.g.).

Goias controlled possession (50%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro in Goiânia, Goiás.