Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Goias vs Atletico Paranaense — Serie B 2026

Goias
Goias
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense
K. Viveros 47'
11/1/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 35Estadio da Serrinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Goias40%
×Draw27%
Atletico Paranaense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goias
1.32
Atletico Paranaense
1.19

Goias creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Goias
1.42
Atletico Paranaense
1.38

allows per match

Goias
1.01
Atletico Paranaense
1.23

finishing

Goias-0.19scores less
Atletico Paranaense-0.05on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Atletico Paranaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Goias or draw
67%
Goias or Atletico Paranaense
73%
Draw or Atletico Paranaense
60%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+
18%
Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals
73%
Goias 2+ goals
38%
Goias 3+ goals
15%
Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals
70%
Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)
54%
Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 13 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.42 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.38 + Goias defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Goias scores more
40%
level
27%
Atletico Paranaense scores more
33%

Goias at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
S. MendozaAtletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense · D
7.9

Match Events

31'
Luiz Felipe
47'
K. Viveros↳ Julimar
59'
Moraes← Brayann
59'
Anthony← Messias
65'
Wellington Rato← Welliton
66'
Pedrinho← Jaja
70'
Luiz Fernando← S. Mendoza
70'
J. F. Aguirre Tabares← Patrick
74'
Jean Carlos←
83'
Raul← Felipinho
83'
L. Esquivel← Leo Derik
86'
Leo←

Possession

51%Goias

Shots

15Goias

Pass accuracy

50%Goias

Statistics

GoiasAtletico
Overview
51%Possession49%
15Total Shots11
0.73Expected Goals (xG)1.02
10Corners5
8Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots11
2On Target5
7Off Target4
6Blocked2
11Inside Box8
4Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
361Total Passes361
300Accurate Passes304
83%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls16
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Goias vs Atletico Paranaense

Atletico Paranaense beat Goias 1-0 in Serie B on November 1, 2025.

Goals: K. Viveros (47').

Goias controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio da Serrinha in Goiania.