Goias 1–1 Atletico Paranaense: Result & Stats

Goias

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Paranaense

Alesson 81'

Vitor Roque 39'

8/21/2023

Serie A · Round 20Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Goias39%

×Draw29%

Atletico Paranaense32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoiasExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.05

Goias

1.20

Atletico Paranaense

1.05

Goias creates 14% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 128 away

1.03

creates per match

0.87

1.24

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Goias

1.03

Atletico Paranaense

0.87

allows per match

Goias

1.24

Atletico Paranaense

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goias+0.00on par

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Goias or draw

68%

Goias or Atletico Paranaense

71%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

61%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+

17%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals

70%

Goias 2+ goals

34%

Goias 3+ goals

12%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

28%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)

55%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.03 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.20

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.87 + Goias defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Goias scores more

39%

level

29%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

32%

Goias at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Canobbio

Atletico Paranaense · F

7.6

Match Events

12'

AllanoPenalty cancelled

18'

Arturo Vidal

39'

Vitor Roque↳ A. Canobbio

46'

Raphael Guzzo← Willian Oliveira

57'

Fernandinho

62'

Alesson← Anderson Oliveira

62'

Vinícius← Allano

63'

B. Zapelli← A. Vidal

72'

Madson← Khellven

77'

J. Palacios← Guilherme Marques

77'

Dodozinho← Everton Morelli

80'

Erick

81'

Alesson↳ Vinícius

82'

Hugo Moura← T. Cuello

82'

89'

90+4'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoiasAtletico

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots14

0.94Expected Goals (xG)1.06

4Corners7

15Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots14

3On Target5

8Off Target6

2Blocked3

5Inside Box8

8Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

349Total Passes425

270Accurate Passes356

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2