Atletico Paranaense 0–1 Goias: Result & Stats

Atletico Paranaense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Goias

Anselmo Ramon 77'

7/12/2025

Serie B · Round 16Ligga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Atletico Paranaense52%

×Draw24%

Goias24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaenseExpected goals in this matchGoias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.07

Atletico Paranaense

1.68

Goias

1.07

Atletico Paranaense creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

1.25

0.89

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense

1.92

Goias

1.25

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense

0.89

Goias

1.44

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Paranaense-0.52scores less

Goias-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

Goias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw

76%

Atletico Paranaense or Goias

76%

Draw or Goias

48%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

28%

Goias wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

81%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

50%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

24%

Goias 1+ goals

66%

Goias 2+ goals

29%

Goias 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

68%

Goias (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 5 matches

Goias away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.92 + Goias defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.68

Goias attack 1.25 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more

52%

level

24%

Goias scores more

24%

Atletico Paranaense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

L. Esquivel

Atletico Paranaense · D

8.0

Match Events

20'

Raul

24'

S. Mendoza← Luiz Fernando

33'

Messias

46'

Tevis← Patrick

57'

Welliton

61'

K. Viveros← Alan Kardec

62'

Leozinho← Belezi

67'

Wellington Rato← Pedrinho

75'

Moraes← Welliton

75'

Ze Hugo← Marcao Silva

77'

Anselmo Ramon

88'

Renan Peixoto← L. Esquivel

90+6'

Luiz Felipe

90+2'

Luiz Felipe← Diego Caito

90+2'

F. Barcelo← Anselmo Ramon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoGoias

Overview

69%Possession31%

21Total Shots7

1.15Expected Goals (xG)0.87

8Corners2

10Fouls15

Shots

21Total Shots7

2On Target4

8Off Target3

11Blocked0

9Inside Box3

12Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

591Total Passes265

495Accurate Passes174

84%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Serie B: Atletico Paranaense 0–1 Goias

Goias beat Atletico Paranaense 1-0 in Serie B on July 12, 2025.

Goals: Anselmo Ramon (77').

Atletico Paranaense controlled possession (69%) and registered 21 shots to 7.

The match was played at Ligga Arena in Curitiba.

Atletico Paranaense vs Goias — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Atletico Paranaense 0–1 Goias