Godoy Cruz 2–0 Gimnasia L.P.: Result & Stats

Godoy Cruz

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gimnasia L.P.

T. Conechny 90+4'

T. Allende 31'

5/19/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 17Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Godoy Cruz41%

×Draw29%

Gimnasia L.P.31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Godoy CruzExpected goals in this matchGimnasia L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.00

Godoy Cruz

1.20

Gimnasia L.P.

1.00

Godoy Cruz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 26 away

1.18

creates per match

0.90

1.10

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Godoy Cruz

1.18

Gimnasia L.P.

0.90

allows per match

Godoy Cruz

1.10

Gimnasia L.P.

1.22

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Godoy Cruz+0.15scores more

Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Godoy Cruz ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Godoy Cruz or draw

69%

Godoy Cruz or Gimnasia L.P.

71%

Draw or Gimnasia L.P.

59%

Winning margin

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

17%

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

70%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

34%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

12%

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

63%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

26%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

57%

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Godoy Cruz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.10 · 6 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Godoy Cruz attack 1.18 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Godoy Cruz scores more

41%

level

29%

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

31%

Godoy Cruz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Godoy Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Allende

Godoy Cruz · M

8.2

Match Events

31'

T. Allende↳ G. Abrego

45+3'

Salomón Rodríguez

45+3'

Guillermo Enrique

46'

E. Ramírez← N. Sánchez

59'

I. Mammini← N. Colazo

59'

F. Torres← F. Soldano

67'

C. Núñez← B. Leyes

67'

L. Mamut← A. Lescano

68'

Leonardo Morales

75'

M. Comba← C. Tarragona

85'

T. Galdames← J. Meli

86'

T. Conechny← H. López

89'

Lucas Arce

90+5'

Tomás Conechny

90+1'

B. Salvareschi← N. Fernández

90'

E. Larrosa← S. Rodríguez

90+4'

T. Conechny↳ T. Allende

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GodoyGimnasia

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots7

9Corners2

14Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots7

4On Target1

8Off Target3

6Blocked3

10Inside Box5

8Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

330Total Passes298

209Accurate Passes179

63%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0