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Gimnasia L.P. vs Godoy Cruz — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Godoy Cruz
Godoy Cruz
L. Contín 90+5'
B. Alemán 61' (pen)
8/5/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 12Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.42%
×Draw29%
Godoy Cruz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
1.22
Godoy Cruz
0.96

Gimnasia L.P. creates 27% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.07
Godoy Cruz
0.80

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Godoy Cruz
1.37

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less
Godoy Cruz+0.09on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Godoy Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
71%
Gimnasia L.P. or Godoy Cruz
71%
Draw or Godoy Cruz
58%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
18%
Godoy Cruz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
70%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
34%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
12%
Godoy Cruz 1+ goals
62%
Godoy Cruz 2+ goals
25%
Godoy Cruz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
59%
Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Godoy Cruz away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Godoy Cruz attack 0.80 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
42%
level
29%
Godoy Cruz scores more
29%

Gimnasia L.P. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
L. MoralesGimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P. · D
8.5

Match Events

25'
Pier Barrios
46'
J. Pintado← P. Barrios
56'
B. Domínguez← L. Chávez
60'
Gianluca Ferrari
61'
B. AlemánPenalty
70'
M. Ramírez← T. Allende
70'
E. Larrosa← G. Abrego
78'
R. Cecchini← F. Soldano
79'
Franco Negri
82'
C. Chávez← S. Rodríguez
87'
L. Contín← E. Ramírez
87'
G. Vega← E. Bullaude
90+5'
L. Contín↳ B. Alemán

Possession

45%Gimnasia

Shots

17Gimnasia

Pass accuracy

47%Gimnasia

Statistics

GimnasiaGodoy
Overview
45%Possession55%
17Total Shots12
4Corners11
5Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots12
4On Target3
7Off Target5
6Blocked4
9Inside Box6
8Outside Box6
Passing
45%Possession55%
313Total Passes379
203Accurate Passes273
65%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls10
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Gimnasia L.P. 2–0 Godoy Cruz

Gimnasia L.P. beat Godoy Cruz 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 5, 2022.

Goals: B. Alemán (61' pen), L. Contín (90+5').

Godoy Cruz controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.