Goa 0–0 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

Goa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mumbai City

12/12/2023

Indian Super League · Round 10Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Goa38%

×Draw24%

Mumbai City37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoaExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.48

Goa

1.50

Mumbai City

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 74 away

1.81

creates per match

1.81

1.14

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Goa

1.81

Mumbai City

1.81

allows per match

Goa

1.14

Mumbai City

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goa+0.00on par

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goa ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Goa or draw

63%

Goa or Mumbai City

76%

Draw or Mumbai City

62%

Winning margin

Goa wins by 2+

18%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Goa 1+ goals

78%

Goa 2+ goals

44%

Goa 3+ goals

19%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

77%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

43%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Goa (draw refunded)

51%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goa at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.14 · 73 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goa attack 1.81 + Mumbai City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mumbai City attack 1.81 + Goa defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Goa scores more

38%

level

24%

Mumbai City scores more

37%

Goa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff