Giresunspor 0–2 Elazığspor: Result & Stats

Giresunspor

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Elazığspor

Y. Tunç 76'

B. Şimşek 53'

9/29/2024

League #205 · Kirmizi - 5Çotanak Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Giresunspor22%

×Draw20%

Elazığspor58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GiresunsporExpected goals in this matchElazığspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

2.20

Giresunspor

1.30

Elazığspor

2.20

Elazığspor creates 69% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

2.40

2.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Giresunspor

1.00

Elazığspor

2.40

allows per match

Giresunspor

2.00

Elazığspor

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Giresunspor+0.00on par

Elazığspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giresunspor ↓

Elazığspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Giresunspor or draw

42%

Giresunspor or Elazığspor

80%

Draw or Elazığspor

78%

Winning margin

Giresunspor wins by 2+

9%

Elazığspor wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Giresunspor 1+ goals

73%

Giresunspor 2+ goals

37%

Giresunspor 3+ goals

14%

Elazığspor 1+ goals

89%

Elazığspor 2+ goals

64%

Elazığspor 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Giresunspor (draw refunded)

28%

Elazığspor (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giresunspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Elazığspor away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giresunspor attack 1.00 + Elazığspor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Elazığspor attack 2.40 + Giresunspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Giresunspor scores more

22%

level

20%

Elazığspor scores more

58%

Elazığspor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Elazığspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Çakıroğlu← F. Kütük

53'

57'

58'

67'

68'

B. Özyazıcı← A. Küçükaydın

73'

B. Arman← M. İnan

76'

Y. Tunç

80'

B. Aydın← M. Taşkıran

80'

M. Arslantaş← Y. Tunç

90'

E. Tatlı← Y. Erdem

90'

M. Ablay← M. Koçak

Giresunspor

Elazığspor

1

5

35

23

77

10

⚽

Şimşek

14

▼

Taşkıran

66

▼

Koçak

33

▼

Erdem

17

▼

İnan

11

⚽

▼

24

7

28

45

77

10

3

▼

Kara

48

▼

Küçükaydı

70

▼

Nizam

97

▼

Kütük

17

▼

Cebeci

Manager: M. Aydın

46'▲M. Çakıroğlu←▼F. Kütük

57'▲A. Akçay←▼A. Kara

58'▲E. Korkmaz←▼E. Nizam

67'▲F. Yılmaz←▼A. Cebeci

68'▲B. Özyazıcı←▼A. Küçükaydın

Giresunspor substitutes

21Çakıroğlu22Akçay9Korkmaz5Yılmaz20Özyazıcı1Anapa8Teomete34Turhan99Biçer11Öztürk

Manager: B. Yenihayat

73'▲B. Arman←▼M. İnan

80'▲B. Aydın←▼M. Taşkıran

80'▲M. Arslantaş←▼Y. Tunç

90'▲E. Tatlı←▼Y. Erdem

90'▲M. Ablay←▼M. Koçak

Elazığspor substitutes

55Arman8Aydın9Arslantaş6Tatlı88Ablay25Çıra7Frei22Şenyüz41Türkkal54Uzun