Elazığspor vs Giresunspor — League #205 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Elazığspor78%
Giresunspor9%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Elazığspor creates 227% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Elazığspor ↓
Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Elazığspor at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches
Giresunspor away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Elazığspor attack 3.00 + Giresunspor defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.88
Giresunspor attack 0.25 + Elazığspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 78%?"
Elazığspor at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 78% does not mean "Elazığspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Güzide Gebzespor
Adana 01 FK
Ankaraspor
Mardin 1969Elazığspor
Ankaragücü
Isparta 32 Spor
Muğlaspor
Menemen FK
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
Aliağa FAŞ
Muş Sport Klübü
Kastamonuspor
24 Erzincanspor
Fethiyespor
Bursaspor
Somaspor
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
İskenderunspor
Erbaaspor
1461 Trabzon FK
Karaman FK
Kırklarelispor
Beykoz Anadolu
Karacabey Belediyespor
Batman Petrolspor
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
Ankara Demirspor
Şanlıurfaspor
Bucaspor 1928
Kepezspor
İnegölspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
Altınordu
AdanasporIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Elazığspor host Giresunspor on Wednesday, 12 February 2025 at 11:00. The match is part of the League #205 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Elazığspor vs Giresunspor
Elazığspor beat Giresunspor 5-0 in League #205 on February 12, 2025.
Goals: H. Sönmez (27', 63', 79'), Y. Tunç (53'), B. Yavuzay (62').
The match was played at Elazığ Atatürk Stadyumu in Elazığ.