Elazığspor 0–0 Giresunspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Elazığspor

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Giresunspor

2/3/2019

1. Lig · Round 20Şanlıurfa GAP Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Elazığspor42%

×Draw27%

Giresunspor31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElazığsporExpected goals in this matchGiresunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.13

Elazığspor

1.36

Giresunspor

1.13

Elazığspor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 69 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Elazığspor

1.22

Giresunspor

1.00

allows per match

Elazığspor

1.25

Giresunspor

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elazığspor+0.00on par

Giresunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elazığspor ↓

Giresunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Elazığspor or draw

69%

Elazığspor or Giresunspor

73%

Draw or Giresunspor

58%

Winning margin

Elazığspor wins by 2+

20%

Giresunspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Elazığspor 1+ goals

74%

Elazığspor 2+ goals

39%

Elazığspor 3+ goals

16%

Giresunspor 1+ goals

68%

Giresunspor 2+ goals

31%

Giresunspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Elazığspor (draw refunded)

57%

Giresunspor (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elazığspor at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Giresunspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.51 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elazığspor attack 1.22 + Giresunspor defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.36

Giresunspor attack 1.00 + Elazığspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Elazığspor scores more

42%

level

27%

Giresunspor scores more

31%

Elazığspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Elazığspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

D. Traore← V. Okumak

46'

M. Ceylan← C. Akgün

63'

C. Tănase← S. Polat

69'

Y. Ozan← M. Reis

75'

E. Gökçe← K. Taşoğlu

85'

D. Kaynak← L. Diarra

Elazığspor

Giresunspor

26

Erdoğan

4

Demir

34

Taşdelen

35

▼

Polat

13

Altındağ

7

Landel

10

▼

88

24

9

15

▼

99

55

32

20

4

16

61

▼

Akgün

19

Eskihella

80

▼

Taşoğlu

26

▼

Diarra

33

Traore

46'▲M. Ceylan←▼C. Akgün

75'▲E. Gökçe←▼K. Taşoğlu

85'▲D. Kaynak←▼L. Diarra

Elazığspor substitutes

15Ceylan39Gökçe77Kaynak5Alsu95Doğan24Akakpo11Özbayraktar

Manager: Ü. Özat

40'▲D. Traore←▼V. Okumak

63'▲C. Tănase←▼S. Polat

69'▲Y. Ozan←▼M. Reis

Giresunspor substitutes

97Traore40Tănase99Ozan27Atağ28Aydın44Taş93Tut