Gimnastic 3–0 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Gimnastic

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cornellà

Marc Fernández 77'

Jaume Jardí 47'

Nacho González 31'

1/3/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Nou Estadi Costa Daurada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnastic58%

×Draw25%

Cornellà17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GimnasticExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.70

Gimnastic

1.56

Cornellà

0.70

Gimnastic creates 123% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.71

creates per match

0.68

0.71

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Gimnastic

1.71

Cornellà

0.68

allows per match

Gimnastic

0.71

Cornellà

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw

83%

Gimnastic or Cornellà

75%

Draw or Cornellà

42%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+

31%

Cornellà wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals

79%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

46%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

21%

Cornellà 1+ goals

50%

Cornellà 2+ goals

16%

Cornellà 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

78%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.71 + Cornellà defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cornellà attack 0.68 + Gimnastic defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gimnastic scores more

58%

level

25%

Cornellà scores more

17%

Gimnastic at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

31'

47'

55'

61'

Carles Garrido← Marc Tenas

61'

Kike López← Marc Vilaplana

61'

Luisao Macías← Canario

69'

Marc Fernández← David Concha

69'

Marc Montalvo← Andy

77'

Marc Fernández

80'

Gorka Santamaría← Pablo Fernández

80'

Unai Dufur← Pablo Trigueros

82'

J. Jardi

83'

Koffi← Eudald Vergés

86'

Mario Rodríguez← Jaume Jardí

87'

Luisao

89'

M. Montalvo

Gimnastic

Cornellà

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Jardí

Manager: Dani Vidal

69'▲Marc Fernández←▼David Concha

69'▲Marc Montalvo←▼Andy

80'▲Gorka Santamaría←▼Pablo Fernández

80'▲Unai Dufur←▼Pablo Trigueros

86'▲Mario Rodríguez←▼Jaume Jardí

Gimnastic substitutes

FernándezMontalvoSantamaríaDufurRodríguezGorostidiParraRecioPeñaPochettinoDomingo

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

61'▲Carles Garrido←▼Marc Tenas

61'▲Kike López←▼Marc Vilaplana

61'▲Luisao Macías←▼Canario

83'▲Koffi←▼Eudald Vergés

Cornellà substitutes

GarridoLópezMacíasKoffiCherradiHaoGorritiNiangSoma

Match Recap: Gimnastic vs Cornellà

Gimnastic beat Cornellà 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 3, 2024.

Goals: Nacho González (31'), Jaume Jardí (47'), Marc Fernández (77').

The match was played at Nou Estadi Costa Daurada in Tarragona.

Gimnastic vs Cornellà — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gimnastic vs Cornellà