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Gimnastic vs Cornellà — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cornellà
Cornellà
5/14/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 36Nou Estadi de Tarragona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gimnastic51%
×Draw26%
Cornellà23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.50
Cornellà
0.90

Gimnastic creates 67% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.35
Cornellà
0.84

allows per match

Gimnastic
0.96
Cornellà
1.66

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Cornellà →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
77%
Gimnastic or Cornellà
74%
Draw or Cornellà
49%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
26%
Cornellà wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
78%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
44%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
19%
Cornellà 1+ goals
59%
Cornellà 2+ goals
23%
Cornellà 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
69%
Cornellà (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.35 + Cornellà defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cornellà attack 0.84 + Gimnastic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gimnastic scores more
51%
level
26%
Cornellà scores more
23%

Gimnastic at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Gimnastic 1–0 Cornellà

Gimnastic beat Cornellà 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Nou Estadi de Tarragona in Tarragona.