Gimnastic 1–0 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Gimnastic

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cornellà

Javier Bonilla 20' (pen)

2/27/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Nou Estadi de Tarragona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gimnastic51%

×Draw26%

Cornellà23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GimnasticExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.90

Gimnastic

1.50

Cornellà

0.90

Gimnastic creates 67% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.35

creates per match

0.84

0.96

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Gimnastic

1.35

Cornellà

0.84

allows per match

Gimnastic

0.96

Cornellà

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw

77%

Gimnastic or Cornellà

74%

Draw or Cornellà

49%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+

26%

Cornellà wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals

78%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

44%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

19%

Cornellà 1+ goals

59%

Cornellà 2+ goals

23%

Cornellà 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

69%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.35 + Cornellà defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cornellà attack 0.84 + Gimnastic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gimnastic scores more

51%

level

26%

Cornellà scores more

23%

Gimnastic at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

D. Romera

20'

Kike Lopez

20'

C. Garcia

20'

Javier BonillaPenalty

46'

N. Asare← Andreu Hernández

46'

Pipo← M. Traoré

57'

Jannick Buyla← Pablo Fernández

58'

M. Trilles

65'

Nil Jiménez← Javier Bonilla

67'

A. Quintanilla

75'

Gil Muntadas← G. Mancuso

75'

Víctor Fernández← Dorca

82'

J. Ribelles

84'

Edgar Hernández← Robert Simón

84'

Fran Carbià← Dani Romera

86'

M. Gorriti← Gonpi

88'

F. Carbia

90+1'

J. Buyla

Gimnastic

Cornellà

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Raúl Agné

57'▲Jannick Buyla←▼Pablo Fernández

65'▲Nil Jiménez←▼Javier Bonilla

84'▲Edgar Hernández←▼Robert Simón

84'▲Fran Carbià←▼Dani Romera

Gimnastic substitutes

BuylaJiménezHernándezCarbiàAlbarránPérezGonziBecerraL'KouchaVenetikidis

Manager: Raúl Casañ

46'▲N. Asare←▼Andreu Hernández

46'▲Pipo←▼M. Traoré

75'▲Gil Muntadas←▼G. Mancuso

75'▲Víctor Fernández←▼Dorca

86'▲M. Gorriti←▼Gonpi

Cornellà substitutes

AsarePipoMuntadasFernándezGorritiMartínSantaellaVilaplanaMartíGimenoBaldrich

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Gimnastic 1–0 Cornellà

Gimnastic beat Cornellà 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 27, 2022.

Goals: Javier Bonilla (20' pen).

The match was played at Nou Estadi de Tarragona in Tarragona.

Gimnastic vs Cornellà — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Gimnastic 1–0 Cornellà