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Gimnasia L.P. vs Argentinos JRS — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
P. De Blasis 90' (pen)
9/2/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.36%
×Draw29%
Argentinos JRS35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
1.10
Argentinos JRS
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.07
Argentinos JRS
1.03

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Argentinos JRS
1.13

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less
Argentinos JRS-0.41scores less

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Argentinos JRS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
65%
Gimnasia L.P. or Argentinos JRS
71%
Draw or Argentinos JRS
64%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
15%
Argentinos JRS wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
67%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
30%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
10%
Argentinos JRS 1+ goals
66%
Argentinos JRS 2+ goals
29%
Argentinos JRS 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
51%
Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Argentinos JRS attack 1.03 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
36%
level
29%
Argentinos JRS scores more
35%

Gimnasia L.P. at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. PintadoGimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P. · D
8.0

Match Events

32'
Sebastián Prieto
37'
Francis Mac Allister
46'
S. Rodríguez← A. Lescano
49'
Martín Fernández
65'
D. Zalazar← M. Abaldo
78'
A. Gamarra← F. Mac Allister
78'
L. Heredia← E. Viveros
81'
P. De Blasis← L. Castro
85'
J. Merlo← N. Briasco
86'
Álan Rodríguez
87'
Jonathan Galván
89'
José Herrera
90+1'
Francisco Álvarez
90+2'
Jonathan Galván
90+1'
M. Perelló← S. Prieto
90'
P. De BlasisPenalty

Possession

49%Gimnasia

Shots

9Gimnasia

Pass accuracy

50%Gimnasia

Statistics

GimnasiaArgentinos
Overview
49%Possession51%
9Total Shots13
1.19Expected Goals (xG)0.61
7Corners6
16Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots13
6On Target2
3Off Target4
0Blocked7
7Inside Box7
2Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
353Total Passes377
258Accurate Passes279
73%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
0.98Goals Prevented0.98
Discipline
16Fouls11
1Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Gimnasia L.P. vs Argentinos JRS

Gimnasia L.P. beat Argentinos JRS 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 2, 2024.

Goals: P. De Blasis (90' pen).

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.