Gimnasia L.P. 0–0 Argentinos JRS: Result & Stats

Gimnasia L.P.

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Argentinos JRS

10/17/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 26Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.36%

×Draw29%

Argentinos JRS35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia L.P.Expected goals in this matchArgentinos JRS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.07

Gimnasia L.P.

1.10

Argentinos JRS

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

1.07

creates per match

1.03

1.11

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.07

Argentinos JRS

1.03

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.11

Argentinos JRS

1.13

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less

Argentinos JRS-0.41scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Argentinos JRS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw

65%

Gimnasia L.P. or Argentinos JRS

71%

Draw or Argentinos JRS

64%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

15%

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

67%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

30%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

10%

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

66%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

29%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

51%

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Argentinos JRS attack 1.03 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

36%

level

29%

Argentinos JRS scores more

35%

Gimnasia L.P. at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

M. Melluso

Gimnasia L.P. · D

7.9

Match Events

37'

Kevin Mac Allister

46'

A. Steimbach← G. Fratta

58'

E. Ramírez← T. Muro

58'

B. Domínguez← A. Lescano

63'

J. Herrera← A. Roa

64'

Javier Cabrera← T. Nuss

64'

D. Zalazar← M. Bíttolo

66'

L. Contín← F. Soldano

68'

69'

70'

74'

79'

Federico Redondo← Alan Rodríguez

80'

Agustín Cardozo

81'

Federico Redondo

87'

Guillermo Enrique

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GimnasiaArgentinos

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots23

2Corners7

17Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots23

2On Target3

5Off Target14

1Blocked6

4Inside Box15

4Outside Box8

Passing

36%Possession64%

247Total Passes440

155Accurate Passes349

63%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1