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Argentinos JRS vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
Federico Redondo 58'
L. Heredia 21'
F. Torres 90+5'
I. Mammini 71'
A. Lescano 23', 9'
4/25/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 13Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Argentinos JRS44%
×Draw31%
Gimnasia L.P.25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentinos JRS
1.15
Gimnasia L.P.
0.79

Argentinos JRS creates 46% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Argentinos JRS
1.08
Gimnasia L.P.
0.90

allows per match

Argentinos JRS
0.68
Gimnasia L.P.
1.22

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.23scores more
Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw
75%
Argentinos JRS or Gimnasia L.P.
69%
Draw or Gimnasia L.P.
56%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+
19%
Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals
68%
Argentinos JRS 2+ goals
32%
Argentinos JRS 3+ goals
11%
Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
55%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
19%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)
64%
Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.68 · 13 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 1.08 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Argentinos JRS defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more
44%
level
31%
Gimnasia L.P. scores more
25%

Argentinos JRS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
A. LescanoGimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P. · M
9.0

Match Events

9'
A. Lescano
21'
L. Heredia
23'
A. Lescano
28'
F. Sanchez
34'
N. Colazo
57'
A. Steimbach← N. Colazo
58'
Federico Redondo↳ F. González
64'
F. Ferreyra← L. Heredia
64'
F. Domínguez← M. Vera
67'
F. Ferreyra
68'
A. Sosa← N. Sánchez
71'
I. Mammini↳ F. Soldano
72'
R. Cabral← S. Montiel
72'
T. Nuss← J. Cabrera
79'
T. Nuss
82'
A. Lescano
82'
A. Ramírez← I. Mammini
83'
F. Torres← A. Bolívar
90+5'
F. Torres

Possession

63%Argentinos

Shots

21Argentinos

Pass accuracy

55%Argentinos

Statistics

ArgentinosGimnasia
Overview
63%Possession37%
21Total Shots13
12Corners4
8Fouls11
Shots
21Total Shots13
7On Target8
8Off Target2
6Blocked3
15Inside Box6
6Outside Box7
Passing
63%Possession37%
383Total Passes236
273Accurate Passes134
71%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
8Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Argentinos JRS 2–4 Gimnasia L.P.

Gimnasia L.P. beat Argentinos JRS 4-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 25, 2023.

Goals: A. Lescano (9', 23'), L. Heredia (21'), Federico Redondo (58'), I. Mammini (71'), F. Torres (90+5').

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (63%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Diego Armando Maradona in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.