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Gillingham vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
Preview
14:00
Walsall
Walsall
8/15/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 1Priestfield Stadium
Big match
47%
Walsall
model favours
29%23%47%
1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Gillingham29%
×Draw23%
Walsall47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.33
Walsall
1.75

Walsall creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.38
Walsall
1.85

allows per match

Gillingham
1.66
Walsall
1.29

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less
Walsall-0.03on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
53%
Gillingham or Walsall
77%
Draw or Walsall
71%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
13%
Walsall wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
74%
Gillingham 2+ goals
38%
Gillingham 3+ goals
15%
Walsall 1+ goals
83%
Walsall 2+ goals
52%
Walsall 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
38%
Walsall (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Walsall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Walsall attack 1.85 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gillingham scores more
29%
level
23%
Walsall scores more
47%

Walsall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Gillingham
Balanced
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
48%Possession43%
64%Pass accuracy63%
11.4Shots11.8
1.30xGBiggest gap1.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GillinghamWalsall

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Gillingham
5
Draws
4
Walsall
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 50%
2–21–00–01–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Gillingham
WLWWL
Walsall
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gillingham vs Walsall — Match Preview

Gillingham face Walsall on August 15, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Gillingham host Walsall at Priestfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.