Gillingham 0–0 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Gillingham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Walsall

8/20/2022

League Two · Round 5MEMS Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Gillingham29%

×Draw24%

Walsall47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.72

Gillingham

1.29

Walsall

1.72

Walsall creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.38

creates per match

1.78

1.66

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Gillingham

1.38

Walsall

1.78

allows per match

Gillingham

1.66

Walsall

1.20

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less

Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

53%

Gillingham or Walsall

76%

Draw or Walsall

71%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

12%

Walsall wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

72%

Gillingham 2+ goals

37%

Gillingham 3+ goals

14%

Walsall 1+ goals

82%

Walsall 2+ goals

51%

Walsall 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

38%

Walsall (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Walsall attack 1.78 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gillingham scores more

29%

level

24%

Walsall scores more

47%

Walsall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

B. Reeves

Gillingham · M

7.9

Match Events

46'

Ronan Maher

58'

L. Bennett← R. Maher

66'

I. Hutchinson← T. Knowles

66'

T. Abraham← A. Williams

73'

S. Kashket← H. Adelakun

80'

Danny Johnson

86'

L. Walker← M. Mandron

86'

D. Tutonda← R. Law

90+4'

Hayden White

90+1'

Donervon Daniels

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamWalsall

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots9

6Corners5

9Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots9

2On Target1

3Off Target6

2Blocked2

4Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

308Total Passes330

170Accurate Passes199

55%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls17

0Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0