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Gillingham vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
Preview
14:00
Northampton
Northampton
8/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Priestfield Stadium
Big match
36%
Gillingham
model favours
36%28%36%

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Gillingham36%
×Draw28%
Northampton36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.18
Northampton
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 88 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.12
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Gillingham
1.09
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
64%
Gillingham or Northampton
72%
Draw or Northampton
64%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
15%
Northampton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
69%
Gillingham 2+ goals
33%
Gillingham 3+ goals
12%
Northampton 1+ goals
69%
Northampton 2+ goals
33%
Northampton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
50%
Northampton (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.12 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Northampton attack 1.24 + Gillingham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gillingham scores more
36%
level
28%
Northampton scores more
36%

Gillingham at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Gillingham
Balanced
Northampton
Balanced
47%Possession48%
64%Pass accuracy65%
11.1ShotsBiggest gap11.9
1.20xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GillinghamNorthampton

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Gillingham
3
Draws
3
Northampton
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 70%
1–20–22–21–32–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Gillingham
WLWWL
Northampton
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gillingham face Northampton (League Two)

League Two returns with Gillingham hosting Northampton. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gillingham host Northampton at Priestfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.