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Gillingham vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
Preview
19:45
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
2/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 30Priestfield Stadium
Big match
39%
Gillingham
model favours
39%25%37%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Gillingham39%
×Draw25%
Chesterfield37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.48
Chesterfield
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.38
Chesterfield
1.22

allows per match

Gillingham
1.66
Chesterfield
1.57

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less
Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
63%
Gillingham or Chesterfield
75%
Draw or Chesterfield
61%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
18%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
77%
Gillingham 2+ goals
43%
Gillingham 3+ goals
19%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
76%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
42%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
51%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gillingham scores more
39%
level
25%
Chesterfield scores more
37%

Gillingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Gillingham sit 17, Chesterfield 7 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Gillingham
Balanced
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
48%PossessionBiggest gap60%
64%Pass accuracy78%
11.7Shots12.2
1.30xG1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GillinghamChesterfield

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Gillingham
3
Draws
4
Chesterfield
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 70%
0–14–11–11–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Gillingham
WLWWL
Chesterfield
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gillingham face Chesterfield (League Two)

League Two returns with Gillingham hosting Chesterfield. Match starts February 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gillingham host Chesterfield at Priestfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.