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Gillingham vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
R. McKenzie 8'
8/31/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Gillingham39%
×Draw25%
Chesterfield37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.48
Chesterfield
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.38
Chesterfield
1.22

allows per match

Gillingham
1.66
Chesterfield
1.57

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less
Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
63%
Gillingham or Chesterfield
75%
Draw or Chesterfield
61%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
18%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
77%
Gillingham 2+ goals
43%
Gillingham 3+ goals
19%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
76%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
42%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
51%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gillingham scores more
39%
level
25%
Chesterfield scores more
37%

Gillingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
R. McKenzieGillinghamGillingham · M
7.9

Match Events

1'
Shadrach Ogie
8'
R. McKenzie↳ J. Nolan
20'
J. Clarke← A. Rowe
37'
Max Clark
56'
Max Ehmer
60'
Max Ehmer
60'
Max Ehmer
76'
M. Jacobs← V. Campbell
81'
J. Metcalfe← D. Markanday
81'
K. Drummond← W. Grigg
83'
J. Williams← G. Lapslie
83'
J. Andrews← M. Wyllie
90+6'
Jenson Metcalfe
90+5'
Chey Dunkley
90+3'
Tom Naylor
90+3'
Chey Dunkley
90+5'
Chey Dunkley
90'
T. Williams← O. Banks

Possession

33%Gillingham

Shots

8Gillingham

Pass accuracy

43%Gillingham

Statistics

GillinghamChesterfield
Overview
33%Possession67%
8Total Shots15
1Corners5
13Fouls16
Shots
8Total Shots15
2On Target3
5Off Target7
1Blocked5
8Inside Box10
0Outside Box5
Passing
33%Possession67%
250Total Passes514
163Accurate Passes439
65%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls16
4Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Gillingham vs Chesterfield

Gillingham beat Chesterfield 1-0 in League Two on August 31, 2024.

Goals: R. McKenzie (8').

Chesterfield controlled possession (67%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham, Kent.