Chesterfield 1–0 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gillingham

S. Curtis 16'

2/17/2026

League Two · Round 33SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chesterfield44%

×Draw25%

Gillingham31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.25

Chesterfield

1.52

Gillingham

1.25

Chesterfield creates 22% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.45

creates per match

1.12

1.37

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.45

Gillingham

1.12

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.37

Gillingham

1.59

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Chesterfield-0.05on par

Gillingham-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

69%

Chesterfield or Gillingham

75%

Draw or Gillingham

56%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

22%

Gillingham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

78%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

45%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

20%

Gillingham 1+ goals

71%

Gillingham 2+ goals

36%

Gillingham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

58%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 10 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.45 + Gillingham defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gillingham attack 1.12 + Chesterfield defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chesterfield scores more

44%

level

25%

Gillingham scores more

31%

Chesterfield at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

S. Curtis

Chesterfield · D

8.0

Match Events

16'

S. Curtis↳ S. Swinkels

23'

Omar Beckles

31'

Remeao Hutton

60'

D. Duffy← L. Mandeville

60'

T. Naylor← D. Markanday

60'

J. Berry-McNally← A. Dobra

66'

S. Vokes← J. Andrews

66'

G. McCleary← R. Hutton

78'

F. Ladapo← W. Grigg

81'

C. Antwi← A. Little

86'

E. Coleman← B. Dack

86'

S. Palmer-Houlden← R. McKenzie

88'

Ethan Coleman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldGillingham

Overview

46%Possession54%

19Total Shots14

8Corners7

5Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots14

5On Target2

9Off Target9

5Blocked3

10Inside Box10

9Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

297Total Passes329

199Accurate Passes215

67%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls16

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3