Gillingham 4–1 Chesterfield: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chesterfield

M. Wyllie 90'

L. Cirino 56'

A. Little 50' (pen), 28' (pen)

A. Dobra 53'

8/19/2025

League Two · Round 4Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Gillingham39%

×Draw25%

Chesterfield37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.44

Gillingham

1.48

Chesterfield

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.38

creates per match

1.22

1.66

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Gillingham

1.38

Chesterfield

1.22

allows per match

Gillingham

1.66

Chesterfield

1.57

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less

Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

63%

Gillingham or Chesterfield

75%

Draw or Chesterfield

61%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

18%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

77%

Gillingham 2+ goals

43%

Gillingham 3+ goals

19%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

76%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

42%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

51%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gillingham scores more

39%

level

25%

Chesterfield scores more

37%

Gillingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Little

Gillingham · M

8.5

Match Events

28'

A. LittlePenalty

37'

Josh Andrews

45+1'

Lenni Rae Cirino

50'

A. LittlePenalty

53'

A. Dobra↳ W. Grigg

56'

L. Cirino↳ G. Morris

62'

Vontae Daley-Campbell

68'

A. Rowe← L. Cirino

69'

L. Bonis← W. Grigg

70'

J. Fleck← T. Naylor

70'

L. Mandeville← V. Daley-Campbell

71'

73'

77'

81'

81'

87'

87'

N. Khumbeni← A. Little

87'

A. Lewis← L. Gordon

90'

M. Wyllie↳ N. Khumbeni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamChesterfield

Overview

29%Possession71%

11Total Shots7

0Corners2

15Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots7

6On Target3

5Off Target4

0Blocked0

8Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

29%Possession71%

204Total Passes503

105Accurate Passes402

51%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1