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Gillingham vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
Preview
19:45
Barnet
Barnet
12/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 22Priestfield Stadium
Big match
42%
Barnet
model favours
33%25%42%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Gillingham33%
×Draw25%
Barnet42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.33
Barnet
1.54

Barnet creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.38
Barnet
1.43

allows per match

Gillingham
1.66
Barnet
1.29

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less
Barnet-0.25scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Barnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
58%
Gillingham or Barnet
75%
Draw or Barnet
67%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
14%
Barnet wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
74%
Gillingham 2+ goals
38%
Gillingham 3+ goals
15%
Barnet 1+ goals
79%
Barnet 2+ goals
45%
Barnet 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
44%
Barnet (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Barnet defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Barnet attack 1.43 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gillingham scores more
33%
level
25%
Barnet scores more
42%

Barnet at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings
  • Their last 7 meetings averaged 3.9 goals
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Gillingham
Balanced
Barnet
Possession-dominant
47%Possession55%
64%Pass accuracy69%
11.2Shots13.5
1.24xGBiggest gap1.74
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GillinghamBarnet

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2
Gillingham
2
Draws
3
Barnet
Avg goals: 3.9BTTS: 86%
2–61–10–13–13–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Gillingham
WLWWL
Barnet
DDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gillingham face Barnet (League Two)

League Two returns with Gillingham hosting Barnet. Match starts December 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gillingham host Barnet at Priestfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.