Gillingham 3–1 Barnet: Result & Stats | League Two

Gillingham

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barnet

C. Lee 87'

J. Obita 76'

D. Oli 47'

C. Kamdjo 39'

3/6/2012

League Two · Round 35KRBS Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Gillingham34%

×Draw25%

Barnet41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchBarnet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.53

Gillingham

1.37

Barnet

1.53

Barnet creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.38

creates per match

1.40

1.66

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Gillingham

1.38

Barnet

1.40

allows per match

Gillingham

1.66

Barnet

1.36

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less

Barnet+0.03on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Barnet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

59%

Gillingham or Barnet

75%

Draw or Barnet

66%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

15%

Barnet wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

75%

Gillingham 2+ goals

40%

Gillingham 3+ goals

16%

Barnet 1+ goals

78%

Barnet 2+ goals

45%

Barnet 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

45%

Barnet (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Barnet defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Barnet attack 1.40 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gillingham scores more

34%

level

25%

Barnet scores more

41%

Barnet at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

C. Davies← G. Richards

39'

45+3'

46'

47'

63'

76'

82'

A. Yiadom← S. Deering

87'

C. Lee

Gillingham

Barnet

18

O'Brien

21

⚽

16

17

8

4

10

▼

Deering

12

Mustoe

23

▼

11

7

28

4

⚽

Lee

6

▼

18

22

19

7

37

▼

Lee

14

⚽

Obita

9

▼

Kedwell

31

Miller

14'▲C. Davies←▼G. Richards

46'▲D. Oli←▼D. Kedwell

63'▲D. Spiller←▼O. Lee

Gillingham substitutes

20Davies11Oli17Spiller26Hawkes25Brown

45+3'▲C. Taylor←▼I. McLeod

82'▲A. Yiadom←▼S. Deering

Barnet substitutes

24Taylor15Yiadom1Brill25N'Diaye3Parkes