Gillingham 1–1 Barnet: Result & Stats | League Two

Gillingham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Barnet

B. Dack 45'

C. Stead 17'

11/22/2025

League Two · Round 17Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Gillingham34%

×Draw25%

Barnet41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchBarnet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.50

Gillingham

1.33

Barnet

1.50

Barnet creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.38

creates per match

1.35

1.66

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Gillingham

1.38

Barnet

1.35

allows per match

Gillingham

1.66

Barnet

1.29

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less

Barnet-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Barnet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

59%

Gillingham or Barnet

75%

Draw or Barnet

66%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

15%

Barnet wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

74%

Gillingham 2+ goals

38%

Gillingham 3+ goals

15%

Barnet 1+ goals

78%

Barnet 2+ goals

44%

Barnet 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

45%

Barnet (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Barnet defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Barnet attack 1.35 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gillingham scores more

34%

level

25%

Barnet scores more

41%

Barnet at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

B. Dack

Gillingham · M

8.6

Match Events

17'

C. Stead↳ I. Kanu

45'

B. Dack

46'

O. Hawkins← L. Ndlovu

51'

Nnamdi Ofoborh

60'

S. Vokes← A. Rowe

63'

Callum Stead

64'

Sam Vokes

72'

Remeao Hutton

72'

J. Andrews← S. Palmer-Houlden

72'

T. Akomeah← G. McCleary

74'

Jonathan Williams

80'

Idris Kanu

84'

B. Winterburn← N. Ofoborh

85'

R. Browne← K. Smith

85'

B. Assombalonga← C. Stead

86'

N. Khumbeni← J. Williams

88'

O. Kensdale← R. Glover

90+4'

Nelson Khumbeni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamBarnet

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots15

0.57Expected Goals (xG)2.42

2Corners7

18Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots15

5On Target4

3Off Target8

3Blocked3

7Inside Box11

4Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

301Total Passes305

179Accurate Passes203

59%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls9

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

League Two: Gillingham 1–1 Barnet

Gillingham and Barnet drew 1-1 in League Two on November 22, 2025.

Goals: C. Stead (17'), B. Dack (45').

Barnet controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham.

Gillingham vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Gillingham 1–1 Barnet